The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center revealed Monday that a methodology error had led to incorrect preliminary enrollment figures for fall 2024. Contrary to earlier reports of a 5% decline in first-year enrollment, the center now reports an actual increase, although updated figures won’t be released until January 23.
The error stemmed from misclassifying first-year college students as dual enrollees—high school students taking college courses. This mislabeling inflated dual enrollment counts while underestimating freshman enrollment. Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, acknowledged the mistake, saying, “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”
The preliminary figures, derived from 51.9% of reporting colleges, drew criticism, particularly toward the U.S. Department of Education, which faced blame for a purported enrollment decline due to technical issues with the revamped Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). James Kvaal, the Education Department’s top higher education official, welcomed the corrected data, noting it aligns with internal metrics showing an increase in students receiving federal aid.
The error also affected previous Stay Informed reports and a November 2024 special report on 18-year-old first-year students. Shapiro explained that the surge in high school students participating in dual enrollment programs this year magnified the impact of the mistake.
The clearinghouse has faced discrepancies in past reports as well. In fall 2023, preliminary data suggested a 3.6% decline in first-year enrollment, but final results later showed a 0.8% increase. Despite the error’s limited scope—it affected only first-year and dual-enrolled counts, not total undergraduate enrollment—the center has suspended its Stay Informed reports until it can validate a revised methodology.
Launched in 2020 amid the pandemic, the reports aimed to provide timely enrollment trends, but this latest misstep underscores the challenges of producing accurate real-time data.
